L8Bloomer

I was in the Flatcall Poker main chat on Skype when one of the regulars stated, “Maybe I am not cut out for poker.” That reminded me of my early days of poker when I, too, wondered if I was just making things worse for myself by playing poker. At the time, it was pretty clear that my failings in poker were negatively affecting my personal life, there is no doubt about that.

One of my biggest “ah-hahs” came when I was reading the comments after an article in our local newspaper’s website about a freak hail storm the day before. Forecasters had predicted a 20% chance of rain the day before, but we actually ended up with a torrential downpour, powerful winds, and windshield-smashing, metal-denting hail. In the comments were many complaints about the horrible job of predicting this catastrophic event the weather forecasters had done. “They shouldn’t even be allowed to have jobs,” they’d said, “They’re no better than palm readers when it comes to predicting the weather!”

Lost in all of this was the fact that the weather forecasters had actually predicted a 20% chance of rain.

When I tried to point this out, my comments were merely brushed aside by others – ignored, really. It got me to thinking about poker. You know, how I used to think that this site or that site was rigged because I didn’t think I was winning according to the odds. For example, if I was all in with a flush draw, and it seemed like I was NEVER hitting the flush, I would think, heck, I am supposed to hit the flush 38% of the time, and I am not hitting it at all, but the other players are hitting them all the time!

After I read the comments on this article about weather forecasting, I really began to realize that the same thing is true for poker. I decided to take a closer look at how I was actually doing. I actually started keeping track with paper and pencil, counting the number of times I was shoving with a flush draw, and lo and behold, over the long run, I was almost exactly what the odds said they should be.

Weather forecasters are not perfect. What weather forecasters actually do is look at all of their data and say to themselves, under similar circumstances to the ones we are seeing in our computer analysis, we predict that we will have rain approximately 20% of the time. Don’t we see the exact same thing in poker? Don’t players complain that they never win a flip or that their 70% sure bets always seem to be losing?

Well, there is a reason for that – probability does NOT work to perfection. Go to this website where you will find a virtual 10-sided die. Pretend that your hand of KK is represented by 1-7 and your opponents AJ is represented by 8, 9, and 10. Roll the die ten times. Did you hit exactly 70%? If you did, that is what you are supposed to hit, but I can guarantee that most of you did not. Some of you might have hit 8, 9, and 10 90% in the first ten! First time I did it, I hit 1-7 80% of the time. Now, if you roll 100 times, you will go through stretches where you hit 8, 9, or 10 five or six times in a row – sometimes more! That is because probability is not perfect. However, if you roll the die 1,000 times, you will likely be very close to hitting 1-7 70% of the time. Roll it 10,000 times? Statistically speaking, you are going to be so close to 70% that the difference will be negligible it will make that one stretch when it hit 8, 9, or 10 fifteen-twenty times in a row just a statistical anomaly.

Players have those times – we know they do. “Damn it! Can I EVER win a flip???” They are going through a statistical anomaly. They happen!

When I came to understand this, I noticed, that over the long term, everything actually evened out. If I was playing my cards right and getting in good, it was only a matter of time before I would win my share of tournies – as long as I was doing everything I could to improve my own game!

Ignore the bad beats. Are you getting in good? Then just keep playing your game. Do you understand push/fold ratios to the best of your ability? (f you don’t get PokerStove and learn how to use it. It is free) If so, just keep playing your game – the wins will come.

I have my moments, definitely, but within a few seconds, I am back to the realization that bad beats are just that – bad beats. They are a part of the game that you have to reconcile with, or you will find that you are just not cut out for the game. Meditation helps – but that is a whole other blog entry!